By : Soedibyo *)
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) in its effort to cover up completely the giant corruption scandal in the Government Project of Electronic Identification Card (e-IdC) decides alleging Setya Novanto as one of the eminent defendant of this organized corruption case. This giant organized corruption which has taken place in the period of the Reform Era to have been affecting the Government lost of 2,3 trillion rupiah.
Setya Novanto is still free now but sooner or later he certainly would be detained in line with its legal process. Definitely it is a great challenge for the brave of KPK or otherwise KPK will lose its face. This e-IdC scandal has been definitely a serious tragedy of Setya Novanto considering he is the Chairman of the strong and influent Golkar Political Party, he is also the Speaker of the House of Representative and speculatively he will be assigned as one of the possible partner of President Jokowi in the Presidential Election of 2019. This e-IdC scandal took place when Setya Novanto was the chairman of the Golkar Party Faction of the House of Representative in the period of 2009-2014.
For the long recent period Setya Novanto has been apparently considered as one of the Very Important Person of this country with a number of crucial records. He also considered as cunning Golkar Political Party Cadre, because he is considered as a Gokar Political Party Cadre who had been safe from a number of economic scandal happened in a number of Government Project in along with his political career. Setya Novanto was also considered as cunning but lucky Golkar Party cadre who has been accommodated by President Jokowi who was very angry because his name was manipulated by Setya Novanto to look for the Papuan Tembaga Pura's share holder.
Various Observers who likely have the accurate observation in the case of e-IdC Corruption scandal are of the opinion Setya Novanto to be considered impossible to be safe from this criminal accusation. The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) has been believed accurately and pertinently working, anyone who is accused as defendant by KPK to have been definitely the accusation is based on strong advance evidences and accordingly finally the respective defendant will be jailed. It is predicted the legal effort to save Setya Novanto is potentially failure.
The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) said the decision to accuse Setya Novanto as the defendant to have no any relation with the House of Representative's Enquete on the Corrtuption Eradidication Comission (KPK). The accusation of Setya Novanto as one of the eminent actor of e-ICd project is not the counter attack of KPK against the agenda of The House of Representative on the Enquete on KPK.
Prediction to the case
The giant corruption case involving Setya Novanto is really a tragedy realizing the general impact of this giant scandal, as various observers to be predicting :
The case is considered damaging the credible image of the Indonesian national leadership especially the Legislative Body prestigious performance. More, analyst tend to seriously look at the possible impact of the case to the debacle of the political situation in the Regional Election in 2018, of the General and the Presidential Election in 2019.
Those political debacle will be apparently starting from the internal dispute emerging among the Golkar Party members on whether or not a Special National Congress to elect the New Chairman of Golkar Party should be conducted. According to the Golkar Party Constitution Chairman of Golkar Party should be elected by the National Party Congress. In this case, Setya Novanto tend also reject to resign but transferring the political party leadership to the Daily Party Leadership Council.
This crucial situation will likely affect the problem of election of the new Speaker of the House of Representative (after Setya Novanto to be detained) and finally the political balance in the Presidential Election caused by the estimated set back of the Golkar Party achievement in the General Election of 2019. Golkar Party is definitely one strong political party expected to support President Jokowi in the Presidential Election in 2019 together with PDI-P, NASDEM and Hanura, while PAN, PKB and PPP are considered in uncertain position. The result of Golkar Party achievement in the Election of 2019 to be estimated low affecting the achievement number of Presidential Threshold by the Government Coalition, it is estimated bellow 20 %.
All of those crucial problem resulted by the Setya Novanto tragedy when finally Setya Novanto to be detained could be likely anticipated as bellow :
Internally Golkar Party will potentially face the breaking dispute, the emergence of the demand for the Special National Golkar Party Congress to elect the new Chairman replacing Setyo Novanto. The main problem will be apparently that members realize there is no any cadre to be considered as tough and credible enough to be elected. In the mean time, it is un-avoided his position as the Speaker of The House of Representative should be replaced also. The post can not be vacant, should be appointed by someone of the Golkar Party. This situation will disturb the legislative agenda of the House of Representative.
However It could be unavoidable if people apparently to be remembering to the history of the past, since the House of Representative is a part of the People's Consultative Assembly definitely it could be also likely the job of The Speaker of The House of Representative could be also chaired by The Speaker of The People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) as it happened during the New Order period. This kind of assumption could be likely caused by the dynamic political performance of Zulkifly Hasan as the Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly.
The most crucial situation.
Finally the most crucial situation will be likely the Setya Novanto case might influence the situation of the Presidential Election of 2019.
The leaving of Setya Novanto as the Chairman of Golkar Party definitely will make the Government Coalition to be less optimistic to reach the Presidential Threshold of 20 % as they want. The Government Coalition is mainly depending to PDI, Golkar, NASDEM, and Hanura while PAN, PKB and PPP are in uncertain position. Golkar Party become considerably weak and definitely will affect the political solidity of the Government Coalition.
Meanwhile the partner of President Jokowi in the Presidential Election will become more uncertain. It is likely Setya Novanto case could affect badly to the performance of the Golkar Party and the political convenience of the country situation until the Presidential Election in 2019.
Accordingly it is also doubt the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) to be politically strong enough to finalize the case of Setya Novanto legally, realizing the possible political move launched by a certain strong political interest group which will forcefully make the case of Setya Novanto legally stopped. It could be likely predicted what will happen in such situation, however to think for the worst is definitely suggested.
TNI, The Police and the Security Unit in general are definitely out of the Political Scene, however from the security point of view it is likely important for them to watch the development of the national political situation.
*) Political and Security Observer.